14, the People's Bank of China announced late, from January 20, 2011 from financial institutions raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. This is the first time since New Year's monetary policy action.
industry sources said, after this increase, major financial institutions in China deposit reserve ratio as high as 19% to a record high, medium and small financial institutions, the deposit reserve ratio will be high 15.5%. Rough estimate, the increase, the central bank may be a one-time freezing of bank system liquidity of about 350 billion yuan.
Wu Yonggang, banking analyst at Galaxy Securities analysis, the central bank is the first year to raise the deposit reserve ratio, the overall performance of the bank estimated about 0.3% drop, However, considering the interaction of multiple factors, the other may be the actual impact will be reduced.
ranked third in two weeks, increase capital inflows
3.2 billion
two weeks from the A share market performance since the New Year, as of January 14, banking stocks rose in the third place among the plate or table. Gain in the first place is that real estate shares, or 4.76%; gain second place is the railway infrastructure stocks, rose 4.58%; the third is the banking shares, or 2.54%. Among them, the decline from the bank stocks look up the New Year to 9 days, only the Agricultural Bank of China CITIC Bank and edged down, stocks up 88% of the total banking stocks, among the biggest gainers of the five stocks have Shanguo Tou (up 9.39%), Industrial Bank (up 8.48%), China Construction Bank (up 6.97%), Ningbo Bank (up 6.69%), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (up 6.05%).
According to the , the investor is more optimistic about investment opportunities in banking shares.
12 banks shares of total capital inflows amounted to 3.2 billion. Among them, the stock capital inflows in order of priority are SG Securities (capital inflow 824 million), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (capital inflow of 472 million yuan), Agricultural Bank of China (457 million capital inflow), China Everbright Bank (capital inflow of 438 million), China Merchants Bank (261 million inflow of funds), Bank (capital inflow 210 million yuan), Minsheng Bank (capital inflow of 146 million), Huaxia Bank (capital inflow of 145 million), Bank of Nanjing (capital inflow of 113 million), Ningbo Bank (capital inflow 88.8354 million yuan), Shenzhen Development Bank (36.7003 million yuan) and China Construction Bank (8.2147 million yuan), and other 12 companies.
4 banks shares of total capital outflows amounted to 411 million. Among them, the shares of capital outflows in the bank Industrial and Commercial Bank (capital outflow of 3.1 billion), Bank of Beijing (capital outflow of 62,984,700 yuan), CITIC Bank (capital outflow of 30,362,800 yuan), Bank of China (capital outflow of 7.7137 million yuan) and three other company.
latest valuation of shares from the bank level, the price-earnings ratio is about 10 times the basic, obvious advantages. In the gold industry in the latest report that the operating environment of uncertainty and have attractive valuations banking stocks in 2011 would show ranges, the current stock price in the range of the bottom of the region, is expected to sync the market, with 20 % -30% upside. Due to unfavorable factors have been reflected in the valuation, but clearly negative news may become a catalyst for higher stock prices, leading to the valuation of repair.
hot bodies raised the reserve ratio of the banking industry
Thunder Guotai Junan Li, chief economist, said this raised the deposit reserve Shuaiyi expected, real estate stocks have limited impact on banks. Add the increase in deposits and foreign exchange liquidity to zoom in January, so raised the deposit reserve ratio to be expected. The reserve is expected to increase by 0.5 percentage points, the recovery of 500 billion yuan of funds. Even so, the liquidity in January is still loose. Does not rule out the possibility of a rate hike at the end. Speaking of raising the deposit reserve ratio increase makes the banks financing the pressure, Li said that this market is not too Thunder panic. Because the bank in addition to outside financing in the secondary market, it is possible private placement to large shareholders, banks have been at historically low valuations, but also have the appeal of large shareholders. In addition, he said the long-term bullish A-share market long-term trend.
Zheng Zheng Du Bohai Securities, said this raised the deposit reserve ratio for several reasons: the first week of January, nearly 500 billion of credit is the time raised the deposit reserve ratio The main and direct cause, in addition, recovery of 2011, liquidity and control inflation pressures, the Bank also makes a difference in the beginning of the year, 14 Tengen repurchase is the first time in three years, threatened to restart. The year 2011, a large amount of maturity, and the central voting upside down as primary and secondary market interest rates less attractive to financial institutions, which open market operations the effects of poor recovery of mobility, therefore, raising the deposit reserve ratio to become more commonly used tool for recovery of mobility. He said this raised the deposit reserve ratio were to take away 350 billion commercial bank funds, taking into account the large commercial banks over the basic reserve is zero, there is still a small amount of medium and small joint-stock commercial banks, super store, the real impact of the former gradually increased.
Choi Young GF Securities said the central bank choose to raise the deposit reserve ratio is now mainly for hedging liquidity. A substantial increase in foreign exchange in December and January the rapid delivery of credit makes the market more abundant liquidity, which increased the inflationary pressures faced by the central bank. Choi Young also said that the first half of January has been more than 4 billion credit, continue doing this in January is likely to more than one trillion of credit, credit will meet the year 2011, about 7.5 trillion. Control of central bank liquidity will be an important task in 2011, the deposit reserve ratio and interest rates and other regulatory policies will continue to emerge. Choi Young said that raised the deposit reserve ratio will not cause a significant impact on the broader market, but high asset-liability ratio of the negative fallout from industries such as banks, short-term, or correction.
CSC Yan-Ping Peng, director of the Institute that raised the deposit reserve ratio of banks to a greater number of plates, in particular, some commercial banks.
Southwest Securities, said Zhang Gang, this raised the deposit reserve ratio is to control inflation, which has a certain market expectations, raising the deposit reserve ratio on bank stocks have a negative impact, but the impact is not great. He also said that the increase in reserve a limited impact on the stock market as a whole, the broader market early this week after opening to maintain a low volatility, the market is expected to usher in a half weeks after a wave of rebound, investors can focus on the consumer sector.
2011 years, gold companies
optimistic four banks
CICC in 2011 industry investment strategy that is not clear in the case of macroeconomic trends, the banking stocks as the weight plates can not be sustained beyond the market, but it brought a lower valuation of the expected amendments to the transaction opportunities. Window for potential stock price performance: First, after a quarterly report and local government financing platform for loan classification more clearly, and balance sheet restructuring and enhancing the bargaining power to bring the net interest margin exceeded expectations; Second, inflation slowed in the second half , show some flexibility in monetary policy. For the full year, the bank preferred to structural changes (Minsheng Bank, China Merchants Bank), and have greater room for improvement in the banks (Agricultural Bank of China Bank and Huaxia Bank.)
Minsheng Bank (600016), Key words: raising the loan pricing. To speed up the strategic business transformation and operational restructuring, Minsheng Bank launched at the end of 2008 of 500 million for the financing needs of small micro-enterprises the following Billion in 1000 to achieve the objective phase, the Minsheng Bank is committed to achieving Business Loan Express Edition to upgrade from the traditional version of the changes from the simple to the business loan, including payment and settlement through loans and many other services and small micro-business owners in household wealth micro-enterprise management, including comprehensive financial services to small changes.
China Merchants Bank (600036), Key words: improved loan pricing, control of operating expenses. In early 2010, China Merchants Bank proposed to reduce the capital consumption and improve loan pricing, control the financial costs and increase customer value, to ensure that risk control as the goal of the View from the first three quarters of 2010, China Merchants Bank's
Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Key words: improved loan pricing, control of operating expenses. ABC full use of its unique market position across the urban and rural areas, increase business investment in the county, rising proportion of the county business, in the county to further consolidate its market leading position in the financial sector.
Huaxia Bank (600015), Key words: control of operating expenses, strengthen debt management. Cost-income and high interest rates of deposits has been a short board Huaxia Bank, Huaxia Bank also contributed to lower profitability of the main reasons for the industry. Over the past few years, we see the Chinese bank has been working to speed up the internal changes, including reform of evaluation system, the establishment of internal funds transfer pricing system, the core of the system by accelerating the optimization of business processes such as construction, and initial results.
raised the reserve ratio differences caused four brokerage
People's Bank of China, from January 20, 2011 onwards, RMB deposit-taking financial institutions raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. For the first year raised the reserve ratio on the impact of the market this week, Northeast Securities, State Securities, Soochow Securities, Changjiang Securities, expressed their views. It can be seen from these views, they divided the market trend of gradual increase in late.
Northeast Securities Feng Zhiyuan that the tape will launch a new round of sell into fear. Northeast Securities Feng Zhiyuan that Powei sell into the broader market Friday with the expected further tightening the central bank is related to the broader market on Monday, probably will be opened low, the GEM will be led by high stock valuations, and financial and real estate or to serve the stability index effect. Market adjustment for the depth of the new round, Feng Zhiyuan that pre-gapped or to fill the gap.
State Securities Zhangguo Jiang pointed out that the rate of increase in reserve holdings shaken investor confidence. Golden State Securities analyst Zhang Guojiang expressed in the recent stock market volume decline, the case of tight liquidity, the central bank introduced this policy will have a greater negative impact on the stock market, and the central bank may also have been put forward relevant tightening. For the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio, Zhangguo Jiang said, the market has long expected. Volume shrinkage of the stock market again last week, the market is facing liquidity challenges, but this time raised the reserve ratio will shake the confidence of investors in shares. Bad hit, the A-share market this week, the trend Zhangguo Jiang said that the policy affected by the central bank, the market may be out of the trend of continuous Yindie.
Soochow Securities analysts believe that the policy in line with expectations, the market or Dikaigaozou. Assistant Kou Jianxun Soochow Securities Research Institute, said: raised the deposit reserve ratio to curb inflation, the basic in the market expected, the broader market, after all adjustments have been pre-digested certain extent, investors have no cause for undue alarm is expected on Monday or Dikaigaozou market, investors may be appropriately concerned about the consumer plate.
Changjiang Securities analyst pointed out that the bad need to digest, the market will remain shocks. Chuan Xu Changjiang Securities strategist, said the leopard, the central bank raised the reserve reflects the stable monetary policy this year, implementation of the short term, although the market has had some expectations, but still need further digestion and bad, is expected to remain the broader market this week, shock, Investors should stay on the sidelines. (A pity)
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